What’s Next for Global Natural Gas Demand?

The Iran war and the lack of LNG supply from the Middle East have upended forecasts of near-term natural gas demand and import costs.

So far this year, economies in Europe and Asia have relied more on renewables and coal for power generation to offset reduced gas supplies procured at very high prices.

This year’s crisis has prompted governments to rethink energy policies with energy security the top priority, again, after the 2022-2023 energy crisis.

After the decline in global gas demand this year, due to prices at four-year highs, the obvious question for gas market participants is where demand is going after the current crisis ends. Has the second gas crisis in four years permanently undermined expectations of long-term gas demand growth?

Gas cannot be replaced in many industrial processes, yet. Electricity-generating systems in major economies that have relied on gas for power cannot have a reliable electricity supply without gas.

Still, this year and over the past four years, key gas markets in Europe and Asia have seen the share of gas in their electricity mix decline.

The UK, the Netherlands, and Turkey, and major Asian economies China, Japan, and South Korea, have all seen the share of gas-fired electricity drop, according to data from think tank Ember cited by Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire.

Falling Gas Power Share in Europe and Asia

The spike in natural gas prices has accelerated Europe’s renewables rollout, which took off in earnest earlier this decade when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and cut off pipeline gas supply to most of Europe. The share of renewables has surged in the EU and the UK in recent years, gradually sidelining gas as the reliable backup fuel rather than the one meeting growing electricity demand.

According to Ember, 61 out of 124 economies generating electricity from gas had passed their gas generation peak.

However, these countries accounted for around one-fifth of global gas-fired electricity generation in 2025. So the large gas-generating economies, albeit a smaller group, haven’t seen their peak in gas power generation.

The biggest emerging economies, China, India, and Brazil, have actually met their surging electricity demand without turning to gas, Ember noted.

China’s gas share remained close to 3% of the electricity mix in 2025 despite rapid demand growth, while gas power generation in India and Brazil plays a more limited balancing role, the think tank said.

“The economics and energy security case for electricity are increasingly moving in the same direction,” said Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, ‍Senior Electricity Analyst at Ember.

“As renewables lower costs and reduce exposure to fuel price shocks and geopolitical disruptions, gas is steadily losing the advantages that once made it the default fuel for power system growth.”

Exporters Upbeat on Long-Term Gas Demand

The writing may have been on the wall for natural gas producers and exporters if natural gas was only used in power generation.

But natural gas key uses include as feedstock in industrial manufacturing, including cement and steel, as a chemical feedstock for fertilizer, or as the start of the supply chain of manufacturing plastics, paints, synthetic fabrics, and medicine, to name a few.

And then comes the biggest twist in energy and electricity demand forecasts in recent years—the AI boom. Data centers will drive a large part of the rise in global electricity demand, which has returned to growth even in the U);